Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 35.314393 38.334378 41.666052 45.648880 50.327988 55.712328 62.470397
2025-07-20 30.538528 34.407102 38.970236 44.864570 52.460582 62.207183 76.197674
2025-07-27 28.994383 33.583105 39.279000 47.110469 58.038788 73.558563 99.154511
2025-08-03 27.413088 32.388252 38.799071 48.044501 61.801522 83.132630 123.325405
2025-08-10 25.909647 31.074369 37.922986 48.180568 64.276652 91.239444 149.045729
2025-08-17 24.229536 29.349840 36.271412 46.911400 64.250275 95.020028 168.300927
2025-08-24 22.791333 27.829496 34.747108 45.611861 63.892751 98.026479 187.858978
2025-08-31 22.431150 27.748697 35.239541 47.436770 69.130649 113.578957 256.999145
2025-09-07 21.335847 26.554162 33.994256 46.320054 68.851573 117.298633 293.431266
2025-09-14 20.405547 25.537788 32.936825 45.393967 68.767201 121.471229 339.413950
2025-09-21 19.280628 24.184371 31.286009 43.321929 66.151273 118.683474 349.090618
2025-09-28 18.556720 23.379543 30.426439 42.527644 65.986519 122.262241 403.234486
2025-10-05 18.292412 23.348164 30.932956 44.486125 72.610369 150.117221 822.589393
2025-10-12 17.436133 22.403334 29.957291 43.741162 73.430109 162.264508 1412.200897
2025-10-19 17.235347 22.421716 30.514079 45.890286 81.586443 209.707604 117080.827158
2025-10-26 16.819358 22.074886 30.428327 46.783155 87.025925 256.517759 NaN
2025-11-02 16.314388 21.553587 29.997588 46.913179 90.506383 302.119546 NaN
2025-11-09 15.641584 20.729019 28.982634 45.699920 89.774602 320.559276 NaN
2025-11-16 15.017867 19.953021 28.002939 44.456567 88.672240 336.214853 NaN
2025-11-23 14.886801 19.957688 28.389925 46.202271 97.615348 480.233664 NaN
2025-11-30 14.366329 19.303950 27.555061 45.134275 96.855065 517.024169 NaN
2025-12-07 13.905951 18.729614 26.831605 44.247987 96.541061 565.895096 NaN
2025-12-14 13.323643 17.934943 25.670561 42.262992 91.833270 525.643722 NaN